MyDD :: A Storm is Gathering [Updated]

A Storm is Gathering [Updated]

by Reaper0Bot0, Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 05:38:05 PM EST

Senator Obama has reiterated his pledge to drive up African American turnout by 30%. He also said that he'd drive up the youth vote by similar numbers.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080716/ap_o n_el_pr/obama_winning_the_south

If he can pull it off he will obliterate John McCain. I cannot stress this enough. If there's anything that the Obama campaign has been able to do it has been to drive turnout. I think he's probably on the money here.

A storm is gathering...

With turnout along these lines for Obama and depressed turnout for McCain we could see a 40 state victory at a walk. With turnout along these lines for Obama and decent turnout for McCain we'd still see a blowout in the electoral college.

To anyone who says that I'm dreaming here, or that Obama is, let me remind you that Senator Obama's biggest achievement was driving turnout among a demographic that historically stays home - the young. That group is still crazy-go-nuts for him, and it ain't gonna change.

Obama is still campaigning like he's ten points down, and I hope he continues to do it. The ground game he is creating is unprecedented and it shows no signs of slowing either.

The polls can't accurately predict this tsunami because their models assume turnout something akin to what we've seen in the past. However we must remember that 50% turnout is about right for an average presidential election.

Does anyone really think that Obama will only garner 50% of these two demographics? His campaign is signing up new voters like gangbusters.

McCain is going to get absolutely destroyed and I don't think the media really understand this yet. I'm not talking about a 50 EV victory either. I think we're looking at potentially the biggest victory since 1984.

Has anything happened to diminish Obama's support among these two groups? The polls don't show it. If he keeps Kerry's numbers among other demographics but turns out these elevated numbers among the young and African Americans he will have simply played a different game than McCain.

McCain is running ads. McCain is trying to convince people who pay attention. Obama, on the other hand, is trying to enlarge the electorate. Many candidates have failed to execute such a strategy. Obama has already demonstrated that he can do it.

Guys, I am almost afraid to write these words, but I'm positive that, short some disaster, we're in for an absolutely huge victory. What's more, it's going to fly in under the radar.

Update [2008-7-17 10:4:59 by Reaper0Bot0]:$52 million dollars in June, eh? That's more than twice what McCain nabbed. The WSJ helped us lower expectations. The Republicans are going to get absolutely obliterated, folks. Without the Clinton donors fully buying in we're smashing the Republicans fundraising. It's gonna be a bloodbath.

Tags: Obama, Turnout, Obliteration (all tags)

Permalink :: 73 Comments :: Post a Comment

Tips? (2.00 / 19)

For the weather?

by Reaper0Bot0 on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 05:38:21 PM EST

One part of me thinks you're right, (2.00 / 6)

another part of me also thinks you're right.

by Bob Sackamento on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 10:02:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wish I could quadruple mojo this... (2.00 / 2)

Brilliant formulation.

Pointing to the inadequacies of John McCain

by duende on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 11:19:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Go outside, (2.00 / 2)

turn around three times, and spit. What the hell is the matter with you?!

--The West Wing

Keep it short. DemocraticShortList.com

by Rob in Vermont on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 11:13:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tips? (none / 0)

I fervently hope you're right, because none of us can afford the alternative. Just the thought of McCain in the WH makes me queasy and terrified.

by whognu on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 10:20:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Have you put money into this ? (2.00 / 1)

Because you are seem so certain of the outcome...

If you follow history with a long enough arc, things always get better, and the truth always prevails...Gandhi

by SevenStrings on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 05:41:24 PM EST

Re: Have you put money into this ? (2.00 / 5)

I've donated to the campaign and I intend to volunteer.

Obama beat Clinton by simply refuting some of the basic assumptions of how the primary game was played. He gambled and he won.

He can make the exact same gamble here, with the exact same voters and totally run around the usual approach.

It'll work, I expect.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 05:43:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Have you put money into this ? (2.00 / 1)

I wasnt asking about donations... I was asking about bets!!

You can make a bet on the outcome of the elections. That way, you can make money (by taking it from someone who makes a contrarian bet). Thus, you would be taking money from a McCain supporter.

If you feel uncomfortable keeping that money, then you could then donate it to Sen. Obama, or to a charity of your choice!

Since you are so certain of the outcome, it should be like taking money from a child (or from a Republican, in this case!!)

If you follow history with a long enough arc, things always get better, and the truth always prevails...Gandhi

by SevenStrings on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 05:48:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Have you put money into this ? (2.00 / 2)

I have made only one bet on this election.

At the start, WAY back before Iowa, I was talking to my girlfriend's boss, who I think is this bee's knees. She is a mid 40s black woman, Georgetown Law Graduate, A type A personality times ten, and a political junkie like me.

She asked me, who I was backing and who I thought would win, and I said:

"Obama to both questions"

She said, without dropping a beat

"White America will never put a black man in the Whitehouse."

I said to her, also without droping a beat:

"I got five bucks says your wrong"

I'm pretty sure I'm going to win that bet.

"Either you're the butcher Or the lamb but even so, Everybody pays as they go-Jakob Dylan"

by WashStateBlue on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 07:04:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Have you put money into this ? (2.00 / 1)

What does it mean "bee's knees" ?

If you follow history with a long enough arc, things always get better, and the truth always prevails...Gandhi

by SevenStrings on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 07:19:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Have you put money into this ? (2.00 / 2)

http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/bee's_knee s

"Either you're the butcher Or the lamb but even so, Everybody pays as they go-Jakob Dylan"

by WashStateBlue on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 07:26:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Have you put money into this ? (2.00 / 1)

Thank you !

If you follow history with a long enough arc, things always get better, and the truth always prevails...Gandhi

by SevenStrings on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 12:31:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Have you put money into this ? (2.00 / 2)

Same as 'the cat's pajamas.'

by Shaun Appleby on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 08:08:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Have you put money into this ? (2.00 / 1)

Thank you!

If you follow history with a long enough arc, things always get better, and the truth always prevails...Gandhi

by SevenStrings on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 12:32:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

its funny that you mention this... (2.00 / 2)

i was in vegas in 2000 on election night and was going in to bet $100 on gore winning and got to the window too late.

"Me Fail English? That's Unpossible." Ralph Wiggum

by canadian gal on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 09:23:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: its funny that you mention this... (none / 0)

Lucky you.

I recommend all of you put your life savings on Obama.

If you want Unity, nominate a Democrat

by rankles on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 02:59:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: its funny that you mention this... (2.00 / 2)

I got a 10 spot says the day after Obama wins, Rankles logs on and makes a stupid and pointless comment.

Any takers?

"Either you're the butcher Or the lamb but even so, Everybody pays as they go-Jakob Dylan"

by WashStateBlue on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 08:59:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: its funny that you mention this... (2.00 / 2)

HA! I want to get some action on that one.

I'll raise you 20 that he says he's ...

"MOVING TO ANOTHER COUNTRY, GOOD LUCK WITH BUSH 3 AND THE END OF AMERICAAAAAAA!!!!! "

Something like that.

We want to see Ivana [Trump] because we are so desperate in Alaska for any semblance of glamour and culture. - Sarah Palin

by spacemanspiff on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 10:49:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: its funny that you mention this... (none / 0)

asholes.

< /rankles >

We should be able to deliver bottled hot water to dehydrated babies.

by Jess81 on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 05:39:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Actually... (none / 0)

betting on the outcome of elections is illegal. I learned this when I was trained to register voters this year.

Wouldn't it be nice if there were no rhetorical questions?

by Elsinora on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 10:04:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actually... (none / 0)

That's got to be one of the most unenforced laws ever.

We should be able to deliver bottled hot water to dehydrated babies.

by Jess81 on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 05:40:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Have you put money into this ? (none / 0)

I'd bet on Obama if I could get even money on it. He's currently trading at close to 2:1 odds. I'm never going to be more certain than that - he could get caught in bed with a horse.

We should be able to deliver bottled hot water to dehydrated babies.

by Jess81 on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 05:40:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Storm is Gathering (2.00 / 1)

I wholeheartedly agree. I forget where - maybe here - I saw a diary on Obama's missing 2% in the polls. I don't think that he needs a 30% increase in the youth vote, but it is a good target.

by futbol dad on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 05:42:46 PM EST

Re: A Storm is Gathering (2.00 / 1)

Those of you who are under 30...
Those of you with sons and/or daughters under 30..

Are they cell phone only(except for net provider)?
If so..they are not polled...
I know the people "on the ground" here in Colorado are under 30.
This is a good thing..
Our Dem Primary demonstrated record numbers of people under 30 and African-Americans...
This is a game changer...

"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"

by nogo postal on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 05:47:29 PM EST

Re: A Storm is Gathering (2.00 / 2)

I am under thirty and only use a cell phone. I have been polled twice in the last month, though both polls were state/local. Do national polls function differently? If so, what is stopping them from stepping out of 1996 and joining the rest of modern society?

www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com

by LandStander on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 10:20:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

40-state victory? (none / 0)

Not a chance; even Bush running for his third term, if the constitution permitted, would have won at least nine states against Obama.

by Blazers Edge on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 05:50:53 PM EST

Re: 40-state victory? (none / 0)

It was a hypothetical that involved depressed turnout for the Republicans. If five percent of them stay home it'll be a disaster.

I'm not saying I expect that to happen, but it might.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 05:51:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

i hope thats hyperbole (none / 0)

Bush could win Utah- thats it. Obama would win with at least 45 states.

BHO/HRC 08

by omar little on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 06:58:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

my bad- (none / 0)

i interpreted your comment as saying Bush would beat Obama by a MARGIN of 9 states, not that he could win 9 states.

But i seriously doubt he could win more than 2 states.

BHO/HRC 08

by omar little on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 06:59:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The nine states that I have (none / 0)

Bush winning against Obama are Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Alabama, Texas, South Carolina, Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma. Perhaps Obama could take Texas and South Carolina from this list but Bush probably remains more popular than Obama in the other seven.

I have Obama taking Kentucky and West Virginia from Bush as well.

by Blazers Edge on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 08:46:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Storm is Gathering (2.00 / 1)

The election is going to be close.

Most southern states are going to stay republican in my view ; outside of Virginia I don't see much changing in the dixie.

It is easy to get excited about polls this far out but it would be naive to bet your house on it.

The campaign hasn't even started yet we are still warming up.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 05:56:35 PM EST

Re: A Storm is Gathering (2.00 / 1)

I'm not really getting excited based on the polls, though. I'm excited because it's dawning on me that his strategy in the primaries is absolutely applicable in the general.

You don't have to spend vast resources trying to change minds (though obviously you should still try). There are ever so many more opportunities among those who don't usually show up. Obama's not the first to try this, but he's managed it so far...

by Reaper0Bot0 on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 05:59:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Storm is Gathering (none / 0)

But if he is able to pick up OH, NH, CO, NM, IA and maybe VA, then it starts to look like a blowout. Even if he loses OH and VA from that bunch, he still wins.

by the mollusk on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 06:17:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Storm is Gathering (none / 0)

It may end up close. But it's hard to predict a big Democratic victory from where we're standing, Lori. The only judge I can offer is a negative one: where are the McCain supporters? In my county, which went 68% for Bush, I've yet to see a single McCain sticker. I still see W stickers around but nothing for McCain. People here in East TN just aren't excited about McCain. Hell, today at the Food City I saw a car with TWO W stickers and another car with an Obama sticker.

McCain will win in the South, of course. He'll win KY, TN, SC, AL, LA and OK with ease. He'll win - but not in a blowout - in GA, TX, SC, WV and MS. But NC is hard to figure at this point - western NC is the most pro-McCain part of the state. And VA is leaning toward Obama a bit. Quasi-Southern states like MO and FL are complete toss-ups.

by elrod on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 08:40:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Storm is Gathering (2.00 / 6)

I agree with you, however concerning this...

If there's anything that the Obama campaign has been able to do it has been to drive turnout.

Let us not forget that Senator Clinton played a huge role in this also. Just like to give credit where credit is due.

A useless "Community Organizer" from Pennsylvania as noted by Republicans, Rudy Giuliani and Sarah Palin

by hootie4170 on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 05:57:46 PM EST

Re: A Storm is Gathering (2.00 / 4)

Correct. Her late-game rally was impressive, and it was due to some large degree to turnout and enthusiasm.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 05:59:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

this is the kind of gleary eyed dreaming (2.00 / 1)

that election losses are made of. This election is still in the margin or error right now in the polls. There are still many more whites than blacks in the south, and if you think there's gonna be no white backlash down there, you're dreaming. The south is still the south. Obama is gonna get wrecked there. Even if he doesn't, he is NOT GONNA WIN 525 ELECTORAL VOTES and win the pop vote 58-40. That is never happening, and yes because of his race. He is a black big city liberal who when his social stances are known, he will get killed in the heartland and south just like Gore/Kerry. America is not smart enough to just completely overlook the fact he is a black man named Barack Hussein Obama. He is extremely weak in Appalachia and the deep south. Hillary had strength in Appalachia: she was polling above 50% in Kentucky by early June and winning West Virginia too along with the blue states. If Obama wins, it is going to be close, probably 49.5-49.1 in the popular vote and 280 electoral votes.

by Lakrosse on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 06:46:19 PM EST

Re: this is the kind of gleary eyed dreaming (none / 0)

Okay, I'll actually avoid profanity. Don't imagine I'm not thinking it.

Exactly where in the diary did I advocate anything that would cause us to lose? What did I say or do that would suggest we should ease off, rest on our laurels, or coast in to to November?

Is Obama seen as more liberal than Kerry? If not, then all he's got to do is keep Kerry's voters and drive turnout among these two groups. That's it.

"Extremely weak" in the Deep South? He's down by six back home in South Carolina, and less than five in North Carolina. He's down by similar numbers in Georgia. He's up in Virginia.

He's outpolling our last two candidates in the Deep South. Learn some facts before you piss in my Corn Flakes please.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 06:50:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

On this day in 2004, (2.00 / 1)

Kerry was performing similarly in the south, in a dead heat in North Carolina and down 7 in South Carolina. We saw how well he did in those states that year.

by Lakrosse on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 06:56:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I actually disagree with you (none / 0)

here Lakrosse; I think McCain's chances of winning the popular vote are a lot smaller than you say as the guy has no organization and is counting primarily on advertisements. He's banking on losing the popular vote by under three million votes while winning Virginia, Colorado, and Ohio by outrageously small margins.

The odds of McCain winning any Kerry/Gore state are not high (even New Hampshire, Obama and HRC are the perfect dems for New Hampshire). McCain should devote all his resources to defending Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado and hoping that states such as Missouri, Florida, Georgia, NC, Montana, North Dakota, Indiana, and Alaska are too red for Obama to turn around from for years ago.

by Blazers Edge on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 07:02:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On this day in 2004, (2.00 / 1)

Kerry's people made no effort I ever saw to register new voters in South Carolina. They spent near as no money in South Carolina.

Do you not see the difference here?

by Reaper0Bot0 on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 07:03:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So it seems that (none / 0)

Obama is actually significantly underperforming relative to Kerry in Tennessee and Arkansas; however, Obama is overperforming in Virginia, Colorado, Montana, Alaska, North Dakota, and Indiana. Ohio is about the same.

by Blazers Edge on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 07:04:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On this day in 2004, (none / 0)

To be fair, the NC poll was taken right after Kerry picked Edwards for VP. He got a big bump nationwide for that and especially in NC. Unfortunately it disappeared.

The other close polls you cite were Zogby, and I believe they were interactive. I remember the TN polls from Zogby were all online.

by elrod on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 08:46:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Remember on this day in 2004 (2.00 / 1)

The Democratic National Convention had already ended, and John Kerry was still in the catbird seat.

The week after the convention is always going to be the high water mark for a candidate's faithful's enthusiasm.

by Khun David on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 03:08:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Storm is Gathering (2.00 / 2)

Interesting all the Hard Core Clinton folks see it as close or Obama losing, the Obama folks feel the wave.

I trust Obama AND I trust Axelrod, and I don't care if he wins big or small, but he is going to win.

I think this diary is right, Obama and Axelrod are going to recreate the primary strategy by counting on method and execution.

The boring stuff the media ignores so they can go hyperbolic over each poll, frenzy it up over magazine covers.

Well, Register and get out the vote is NOT subject to the pundits, the polls, the gaffe of the day, or whatever Chris Matthews is spweing out on Softball!

It flys LOW and under the radar of the media, it's boring and non-glamorous.

And it wins elections.

The Republicans have beat us to death by emptying the Churches for years, Obama is going to empty the campuses and he is going to set records in traditional demo strongholds. IF he just holds the rest of the base (PUMAS BE DAMNED) he will win.

I have told this story here before, so sorry for the repetition.

A friend at works daughter came home, said her room-mate took the rest of the year off to work for the Obama campaign.

She is part of a college age Register and GOTV program, they are going to drop her into a battle ground state, and she is going to do nothing but register on campus AND make sure the folks she registers vote, absentee or at the polls.

She is essentially an unpaid volunteer, so she is not showing up on anybodies radar.

That is how you win a war, with footsoldiers.

Think the Republics have lots of enthusiastic kids out there busting their ass for McCain?

Again, PUMA's be damned, I will take the kids in this one.

"Either you're the butcher Or the lamb but even so, Everybody pays as they go-Jakob Dylan"

by WashStateBlue on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 07:16:53 PM EST

Re: A Storm is Gathering (none / 0)

I can has rec?

by Reaper0Bot0 on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 07:20:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Storm is Gathering (none / 0)

Sorry, was buzzing the other diaries.

Rec'd.

"Either you're the butcher Or the lamb but even so, Everybody pays as they go-Jakob Dylan"

by WashStateBlue on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 07:23:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Storm is Gathering (2.00 / 1)

This is EXACTLY how Bush won in 2004... no one could believe it! The polls said otherwise, but Rove was laughing.... no one even noticed his completely under the radar campaign in churches and religious communities... It was only afterwards did the media find out how they got bamboozled...

This is the same method that Obama managed in winning a primary that he shouldn't have even been competitive in... If he could beat a Clinton with this method, he certainly can beat a McSame.

It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)

by LordMike on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 01:57:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Storm is Gathering (2.00 / 2)

At this point in time, McCain is airing political commercial, while Obama is putting 300 volunteers on the ground in Florida, 300 in Texas, 300 in Colorado and hundreds more across the country.

Who is going to remember commercials aired in July in October?

by Khun David on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 03:11:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Storm is Gathering (none / 0)

At some point, the Republicans, afraid of turnout, may resort to vote-caging, etc.

by rfahey22 on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 09:16:18 PM EST

Re: A Storm is Gathering (none / 0)

So we stop them.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 09:22:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Storm is Gathering (none / 0)

I completely agree, but that is a logical move if they think those projections are real. We need to remain vigilant.

by rfahey22 on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 09:31:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Storm is Gathering (none / 0)

I can only imagine Obama's team has a plan for this. Considering the massive resources they are putting into the ground game it is hard to believe they haven't addressed this concern.

www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com

by LandStander on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 10:22:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Storm is Gathering (2.00 / 1)

And, in that case, all this "Obama and Axelrod are from Chicago dirty politics" comments make me kind of smile.

If anyone is going to see this kind of crap coming, it's folks like Axelrod who grew up watching the Chicago ward politics.

It's not that they won't try it, OF COURSE they will. But this time, we might counter strike in real time, rather then whine about it 2 months after the election.

"Either you're the butcher Or the lamb but even so, Everybody pays as they go-Jakob Dylan"

by WashStateBlue on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 10:50:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Storm is Gathering (none / 0)

Shit. I thought this diary was about Iran: what gathering storm is more important than Bush's last effort to fuck up this nation by condoning an attack on Iran by Israel?

If that happens, the next president is screwed having to spend years cleaning up still more Cheney-Bush messes.

Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.

by shergald on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 10:01:48 PM EST

Re: A Storm is Gathering (none / 0)

Shergald.

Enough.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 10:12:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Storm is Gathering (2.00 / 2)

Well, it's perfectly understandable that people could come in here expecting one sort of diary and find another. "A Storm is Gathering" does leave itself open to many different interpretations.

I, personally, expected to see a YouTube video of "It's Raining Men".

by TCQuad on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 12:17:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It could happen, but (2.00 / 4)

it can only happen if he mobilizes millions of people to help.

Here's how you can take action

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/a ctioncenter

by femlaw on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 10:13:09 PM EST

I'm with you on this one (2.00 / 3)

but then I'm known as a hopeless optimist.

but then I have been absolutely correct the majority of the time that others have scoffed at my hopeless optimism (I've puffed my chest over my resume often enough here, so take that statement or leave it [or google me]).

more than tech (that was just a handy vehicle), trends are my thing. What are people doing, why, what does that mean, how does it work, where does it lead...?

There are a lot of factors at play, and they all point in the same direction.

#1 - Obama is not going to lose.

#2 - He is not going to lose - by a lot.

How much is a lot? I don't think Reaper is being ridiculous, let's put it that way. We sure as sunshine in summer will not be counting dangling chads anywhere, or waiting overnight to learn how it all works out.

The only think I can think of that is any threat is ennui and over-confidence, but the campaign is aware of this as well. For all my Obamanauting and ORRing to date I haven't gotten out the shoeleather yet (Florida and my own screwed up life), but saturday there is a meeting at the new campaign office nearby and I'm going to load up on things to do locally.

"Patience my ass, I want to kill something."

-chris

Donate!

by chrisblask on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 11:22:29 PM EST

A lot depends on his veep (none / 0)

But yeah it should be the Dems year. I am surprised it is as close as it is now. It will lull along until after Labor Day when the first debate happens.

by catfish2 on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 11:57:52 PM EST

I agree. (2.00 / 2)

I think the map will be redrawn, though I'm not sure we'll see a straight up blowout. Still, we're going to win -- and by more than we did in '92 and '96.

Even John McCain lusts after teh engels.

by sricki on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 12:05:33 AM EST

Re: A Storm is Gathering (2.00 / 7)

i agree! i'm part of it here in missouri. you would not believe the incredible ground game going on here. there are canvassing and registration all the time all over.

i just got an email about an opportunity tommorow night. volunteers will be registering people lining up for tickets to the midnight showing of Dark Night. they just take every opportunity and make the most of it.

on the fouth of july i registered voters with an organizing fellow who spends three afternoons a week registering voters at various fast food restaurants. she registered 19 people in two hours at a burger king in grandview!

meanwhile... if you want to get involved with the mccain campaign in missouri, the website directs you to the "midwest regional office" in urbandale iowa...

bottom line? GET INVOLVED! it is so easy! you can go see the new batman movie and save democracy at the same time. get out there!

by elie on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 01:28:16 AM EST

Re: A Storm is Gathering (2.00 / 2)

Mojo-ed for putting some action to your words.

Thanks, and go big MO!

"Either you're the butcher Or the lamb but even so, Everybody pays as they go-Jakob Dylan"

by WashStateBlue on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 10:52:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Storm is Gathering (2.00 / 2)

"volunteers will be registering people lining up for tickets to the midnight showing of Dark Night. they just take every opportunity and make the most of it."

That is so smart, and that is the kind of thinking that will win.

STP-STP-STP

Screw the polls, screw the pundits, screw the press!

Method and execution.

"Either you're the butcher Or the lamb but even so, Everybody pays as they go-Jakob Dylan"

by WashStateBlue on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 11:16:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

There's a Storm Coming (none / 0)

Two riders were approaching......the wind begins to howl!

by John in Chicago on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 11:09:30 AM EST

Re: A Storm is Gathering [Updated] (none / 0)

"Without the Clinton donors fully buying in we're smashing the Republicans fundraising. "

You just can't help yourself, can you? You have no idea how much came from Clinton supporters. But you keep picking that already healed sore. Talk about pissing in corn flakes.

Barack Obama is my President

by Jeter on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 11:59:48 AM EST

Re: A Storm is Gathering [Updated] (2.00 / 1)

Um. Jerkass, I thanked her supporters who have donated. However, not all of her bundlers have bought in. This is a fact. A fact. He's clobbering McCain in spite of this fact.

A lot of her Hillraisers have been making noise about sitting this one out. I'm calling them on it. That's it.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 12:11:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Storm is Gathering [Updated] (none / 0)

this is the ticket, it didn't work for McGovern, so if the so-called youth ever want to have a future voice before another generation goes by (if we have that long) it's time for them to actually vote. That would change things. Registering is a sign of future voting. A good sign. Barack can get his mandate if he gets all the youth and all the African Americans. McCain will never inspire a group that hasn't voted in the past to come out for him.

Hillary - alternative energy

by anna shane on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 01:36:15 PM EST

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