MyDD :: "Popular Vote" Troubles for GE, Whoever Wins the Nomination

"Popular Vote" Troubles for GE, Whoever Wins the Nomination

by chrisblask, Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:45:03 PM EST

Hi folks!

There are a few assumptions in the popular vote math that I would like to call out. I think this is an issue beyond winning the nomination for any one candidate and calls out a problem for us in the General Election, and which also needs to be fixed before we do this again in four years.

o First the unsolvable math. We have:

- Cuacus states we can't really calculate

- PR which can't vote in the GE

- MI that didn't vote out loud for each candidate

- FL where I live and witnessed "campaign irregularity" at the polling station (see my other comments or ask and I'll repeat that, but not trying to stir that pot atm so I leave it there)

- Rush Limbaugh Operation Chaos

- Ms. Ferraro's Feb 25 NYT article on why Super Delegate system was created.

- So, put them all together and if it is within a few hundred thousand votes there is literally no possibility of ever getting 100% consensus on what the exact numbers are, nor which candidate has the actual lead. This is a fault inherent in the current Democratic primary system - iny my opinion a critical one.

o I am concerned with a perception of unfair play if it is argued too far that the winner of the race is the loser in popular vote.

- Note I say "perception", because if any of us take one step back we should be able to agree that the final numbers on this will be - at best - "arguable". Whether there is any unfair play or not, it will be used against us by our opponents.

- This is in itself imo one of the larger threats in the GE regardless of who the Democratic candidate is. I can hear Rush and the Far Right Surrogates chanting "Florida 2000" endlessly as we approach November. "According to our next highly qualified guest, those filthy Democrats just repeated the 2000 vote inside their own party!!! What a bunch of elitist hypocrites!!!!"

- I'm an Indie and I was already pissed at both parties for taking away my ability to vote in the first race since I moved back from Canada - and I hadn't even picked a party (though I knew it was Dem time and liked the pack), much less a candidate. I can feel in my bones how this is going to resonate in the middle, and the more we do to fabricate the argument for the Right the more they will use it.

Frankly, I think the problems with the Republicans far outweigh the negatives this will add in the current cycle, but it is still a negative and it may well come back in future elections. This is a problem the Democratic Party is going to have to look hard at to prevent handing future "Florida 2000" arguments to the Republican party.

As you can see from Ms. Ferraro's article, the Super Delegate system was setup to fix a problem that crept up in a previous race. This "popular vote" issue is another such issue that needs to be remedied for the long-term health of the party.

-cheers!

-chris

Poll

Votes: 11
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Permalink :: 14 Comments :: Post a Comment

The primary doesn't (2.00 / 2)

deal with the popular vote and this whole meme is stupid.

accepting McLettuce is like being 9 years old and forced to eat your own cooking

by Sychotic1 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:49:24 PM EST

But the public perception does (2.00 / 1)

I was in Europe on the night of the 2000 vote. As it became clear that who actually won the most votes would be something hard to define - and moreover that the person who won fewer might actually win - it spawned endless defensive explanations from me along the lines of "we really do care about democracy, it's just a funny artifact of the system at the moment."

It didn't look good.

And while Obama will (vastly likely) be the nominee, the way we count is so screwed up that there will be no demonstrable resolution to the issue.

As I wrote what was initially a comment on Jerome's diary, the full picture of the current efforts to define the race by popular votes sank in. The more those among the voting Democratic publis - and it's leaders - argue the Popular Vote the more clearly it will add fuel to the fire stoked against us leading up to the GE.

It won't kill us - the Republican party is in utter disarray and couldn't win a spitting match at the moment - but it is a flaw we need to work out so it doesn't come up again.

-chris

"A ship in port is safe, but that is not what ships are for. Sail out to sea and do new things." Admiral Grace Hopper, computer pioneer

by chrisblask on Sat May 17, 2008 at 01:16:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That is in the general election (2.00 / 2)

where the votes can be counted. You simply cannot accurately count them in any primary due to the caucasus, so this argument doesn't really hold water.

accepting McLettuce is like being 9 years old and forced to eat your own cooking

by Sychotic1 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 01:28:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That is in the general election (2.00 / 1)

It's never come up before as an issue, but we have never had (to my knowledge) the subject pushed adamantly by one of the Democratic contenders before. Certainly not against the backdop of the now-infamous 2000 GE.

There seems no end in sight to this being made Issue #1 for a large part of the Democratic party.

It could become a lingering sore after the nomination process is finally over. Particularly if it's somehow taken all the way to Denver.

-chris

"A ship in port is safe, but that is not what ships are for. Sail out to sea and do new things." Admiral Grace Hopper, computer pioneer

by chrisblask on Sat May 17, 2008 at 01:40:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That is in the general election (none / 0)

I hope you're not complaining about Republicans voting for a candidate. Without them Clinton might not have won Texas.

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Sat May 17, 2008 at 02:23:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Are you disputing the nebulosity of the numbers? (none / 0)

My point is not to pick a fight that is already raging, but to point to the unavoidable fuzziness of the math behind the whole debate.

Do you believe that the numbers can be put down in any way that is not open to debate?

-chris

"A ship in port is safe, but that is not what ships are for. Sail out to sea and do new things." Admiral Grace Hopper, computer pioneer

by chrisblask on Sat May 17, 2008 at 02:50:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The pop vote isn't the measure and it shouldn't be (2.00 / 0)

Candidates shouldn't camp out in CA and TX and ignore smaller states but they would if the pop vote was the measure. Then people would be really pissed around the nation about being ignored.

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:57:31 PM EST

Re: riiiiight (none / 0)

We should follow the rules. If the rules were different then they would have campaigned differently.

The supers aren't rubes and they know the rules and the game. It's too bad so many others seem to be clueless.

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Sat May 17, 2008 at 02:22:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (2.00 / 0)

They will count the delegates for both MI and FL, but it won't reflect the vote exactly in MI and no one else is going to either. This is a paper tiger. Who even knows how she's going to do in Puerto Rico? There hasn't been any polling, and don't assume because she does well with latinos in the US she's going to take PR by storm. it is an entirely different kettle of fish.

John McCain hates terrorists, except the ones that hate women. Those are just swell.

by terra on Sat May 17, 2008 at 01:26:44 PM EST

Yep (2.00 / 0)

The outcome of the actuall nomination is all-but foregone, and we'll see where the popular vote ends up - inasmuch as it is possible to "end up" in any vaguely agreeable form.

There is a lot of contention being generated for an irresovable non-issue. It can't possibly help the party, and it is capable of doing some damage.

I am not quite confident enough in the ability of the Republicans to completely blow Nov while the Dems completely nail it. This is just one of those outlier issues that could come back to have an impact against us.

-chris

"A ship in port is safe, but that is not what ships are for. Sail out to sea and do new things." Admiral Grace Hopper, computer pioneer

by chrisblask on Sat May 17, 2008 at 01:51:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

What evidence do you have that shows FL & MI will count as is? In other words, what evidence do you have that the DNC will allow the rule violators to get off without a penalty?

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Sat May 17, 2008 at 02:24:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not very clever either.

McCain's occupation plan will achieve victory when it bestows liberty to the freedom loving people of Iraq and their freedom loving oil.

by Lefty Coaster on Sat May 17, 2008 at 01:53:42 PM EST

Re: caucuses are a way to discount voters. (none / 0)

Too late to change the rules now.

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Sat May 17, 2008 at 02:24:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Discounting caucuses are a way to discount voters. (none / 0)

in a number of States.

McCain's occupation plan will achieve victory when it bestows liberty to the freedom loving people of Iraq and their freedom loving oil.

by Lefty Coaster on Sat May 17, 2008 at 05:15:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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